Commodities & Shipping In-Focus

New Career Path, Uncertain World

2008-09-22T05:15:00.003+08:00

"Too big to fall" is sadly a word we heard too often last week as my short visit to the United States was marred by the spectacular collapse of Lehman Brothers, and the nearly collapse at AIG. While my visit to the redwoods delivered several fallen giants, I am sad, AIG is not only my insurer, but sponsors to my favourite football (soccer to Americans) clubs, and as a result, my parading around in the US in a Man U shirt caused quite a stir...not that united were well known there, but because the AIG emblazoned across my chest was well recognised by Americans who thought I was getting full use of the shirt before it became useless.
Anyway, the bad word here is equitisation of loans, the root cause for all the sub-prime led disasters facing the US Banking system, worse still, the many overseas who have joined the crowd as the increasingly sheep like financial derivatives and money markets trends reveal that not many are actually in the know for what to expect.
For every loser, there must be a winner (the evil short seller in this case) and we only wonder who they are, and if any more short selling will only end up ruining the investor who takes short term profits in exchange for institutions that hold the future and hard-earned savings of many millions.
Rescue packages sadly go to fat cats and institutions and not to the ground where the suffering is acute and hence one imagines that any rescue at this stage seems only to represent a "delay" rather than a solution. Then again, this is just my humble reading of the situation.
The good news, as financial markets and equity markets overall get him, I am ever more involved in supporting agricultural products and international trade, which i would say were the few that rose on the back of a loss of confidence in the banking and investment sector as money moved back to companies with hard products, products that sustain lifem the food and agricultural sector.
On my career front, I like the people, love the concept and vision and hope that the next few months and years will see us grow into a respected group that can be trusted and relied upon for our readings of the market place. On my personal performance, so far, so good...my reports seem ok, I am always learning new skills and am happy to be closer to the people I have known over the years to offer even more!
Hope I will have time to post more updates. "Sunrise or sunset"...well all I can say is a day is not complete without both!

Memories - Rice Congress of the Americas

2008-07-06T16:00:00.006+08:00

These are a few of the pictures, rememberance to what was a well timed event, but one held as rice prices reached new heights to offer a glimpse of what the world could be dealing with if that price race continues.

It not over yet - the world need to work together to solve this one, but the meeting was a nice wake-up call to act now, or feel some dire consequences that would certainly shake the world and politics as we know it.

On a more light hearted note, this was my first visit to Brazil, and the people, the places and the friends I now have add to what was a good business meeting.

Hang-Gliding in Rio

2008-07-06T15:49:00.006+08:00

Here is "Zero" and I. Zero is my instructure on this bold day in Rio in May when I did my first tandem hang-gliding flight.

It was a thrill...as you move from apprehensive, nervous to sheer wonder as you take flight and look at the wonders and natural beuty offered by Brazil.

A few bikinied babes on the beach did not do any harm to the sights...and of course I landed on all fours...and enjoyed by Chopp beer after!

Here's to a nice memory of Rio and an experience I can say was special, and one I will remember for the rest of my life. Cheers!

Sustainability and the Rice Industry: Can the world recognise farmers, farm assets and value them correctly?

2008-07-06T15:25:00.003+08:00

So rice prices are falling and the whole word talkes a collective breath of releif in anticipation of affordable food prices, perhaps some pressure off governments that genuinely started wondering if they would face political crisis as the poor (and populous) voter starved.

There is a lesson here...we should not leave our guard down. I hope that the world has realised just how easy it is for the world to move from seemingly normal situation to CRISIS.

I hope sincerely that the world does not back down from this "wake up" call. In fact falling prices for now allows us to focus on the issues on hand and more on the long term than simple survival.

We must remember just how easy it was for panic to set in when India, Egypt and Brazil banned rice exports to create what happened between October and June of 2008.

Research on improving yields, reducing reliance on water and perhaps event come up with a better formula that the current systems in place.

Farmers deserve more
Farmers are undervalued
Farm land is undervalued
Farm products deserve more respect

Just take an example...most of us as employees expect a pay increment or better earnings from year to year just to make up for inflation, rising costs...if not any other more ambitious objectives.

If you take equity markets since the 1900s....any fund manager will show you that they have always performed well over the long term
Farm products have been declining in real terms for decades and even the 2008 "boom" in prices looks only a blip when compared to the real value of commercial and residential property, eqyity markets or one of many other economic/industrial indicators

Fact is, rice, wheat or corn is adjusted up 5% since the 1900s, would not only be more expensive, but probably not seen as a "food crisis". Prices rose in 2008 by some 300% in some cases, and this was seen as unacceptable...as compared to a program that allows farmer incomes to go us (just like us), the example of 5% a year since the 1900s would actually be less painful and allow a lot of our food assets to be valued correctly.

Imagine if all the global wheat or rice assets were owned by only 2-3 companies (just like in the case of iron ore, coal or some minerals where a few giants control markets)...we would have paid the price long ago.

The farm community has long been overlooked as a service community that has less desire - THIS IS WRONG, even if it was due to ignorance and negligence.

I'm trying to put the numbers together so we can see the visuals, but the facts remain the same - we just have a massive opportunity to do something instead of pretending that 2008 was just a once-time situation.

Sentiment...and oil rule commodities...but keep fundamentals close

2008-06-12T07:40:00.004+08:00

Its been a while since my return from Brazil, and all I can say for now is that cmmodities traders and speculaters need only look at the oil price for direction as it seems all other fundamentals do not count. In the last month or so, we see freight rates at record highs, rice has gone past 1000$ and while its down now to 800 levels, once gets the feeling that prices could go anywhere...while most tell me prices are likely to trend down in the coming weeks/months, watch the weather, watch India, watch the crop numbers towards the end of the year to get a feel for where we are headed.

I'm personally more concerned about the longer term...water...land...productivity....as the short terms seems driven by sentiment and the flow of hot money that suddenly see commodities as a viable place to park money.

Its largely sentiment driven, with the sudden launch of commodity funds, zero coupon bond like investment vehicles and a plethora of unit trusts, funds etc seemingly only adding to the sentiment factor.

Watch this space, once again I promise more, as my work takes me back to coffee, rice, coal, iron ore and steel and the global shipping that oils the wheels of commerce.

PS Do not forget the fundamentals, as when the fund decide to exit, this is all we will have...and pay attention to the physical trades and not just the paper trades.....and don't forget inflation...seems we have been cursed b y "interesting times"!

The Global Rice Situation - A personal observation

2008-04-12T07:53:00.007+08:00

The global rice "crisis" has so suddenly emerged as the current buzz words in the global media are "food security", inflation, rising commodities prices and how poorer nations will suffer. Taking a step back, one will realise that the media missed out one rather important fact...the issues have not changed for years, its only now, suddenly when prices shoot up that everyone is in a frenzy.
Government are busy, trying to avert inflation, starvation and well....losses in the polls. what has happened? In Rice, India effectively pulled the plug on some 3 million tonnes of rice from a world trade (10% of world rice trade), Vietnam decided to play it more cautiously and not rush out to sell their crop, as did the Thais. We must remember that the rice "trade" represents a paltry part of rice production...but we must also remember the poor importers who now struggle - The Philippines I felt actually did a good job, they did not get all they needed, but were organised and got a large part of their needs early, unlike the other net importers. Bangladesh and Africa I fear will feel the brunt. Both were key Indian supply markets, and both also represent the poorer segment of importers who will struggle to meet price and freight demand that is placed upon them. Indonesia will be interesting to watch as well, and maybe Cuba, to see if their relationships in Vietnam support their needs.

My only concern, we are talking about people, and poor people at that who will pay the price of what I see as a loss of interest from the global economies on agriculture. We were too busy building factories, removing agricultural land to make way for golf courses (and factories no less), we did not heed the warnings on water, on the need for another green revolution, and simply took for granted low food and commodity prices that have been the feature of the 90s and well...for most of the 2000s.

Another concern is the sudden rush of fund money into commodity markets. These funds are needed elsewhere, and if at all only contribute to more inflation as they create smaller bubbles within relatively small markets...be it coffee, sugar, cocoa, wheat, soy or oil palm...we now see even pension funds and other longer term vehicles take a closer look at commodities markets, where investment opportunities via equity is somewhat limited due to the nature of business (you still can't take a punt on the farmer whose importance is rising fast, only a handful of agri-business and trade companies listed in a number of stock exchanges). This money only seems to create more volatility, render some contracts useless as tools for hedging and add more risk. I'm not against funds and their motives, but fear for the worst.

So where are we now? I feel this is an excellent opportunity for life sciences, crop science and biotechnology, yes, GM foods could come to the rescue, if not at least be out to an extreme test, a test that will measure their true potential. But are the masses open to this? My humble take on this: The rich citizens of the EU will continue to exercise caution as they still can't trust their governments who have so often hidden the truth, the Americas and Asia, and Africa will have no choice (ie political failure, riots, starvation, the poor will pay the price, but also hold the political card), but to take a good look at the offerings. But don't forget, Food-Crop Science is a business, so there is a price to pay.

So where are we? Water shortage is still there, the farmer is still poor (well maybe not as poor as before), the farming community continues to get smaller, and there is still no long term solutions on hand as most still focus on the short term.

There is an urgent need to look at the long term, groups like IRRI abd CGIAR and just about that, and yet the rich sovereign funds, fund managers who are tasked to grow our retirement and investment monies are only concerned about market gains (and understandably, they get paid to show a return). The return on an investment in good research that yields us solutions for the future will come in the form of affordable food, political stability and the opportunity for economies to focus on a balanced, sustainable model for growth and development.

There is no question that the world is at crossroads, and needs to invest in our garden to for more fruits, fruits that will avert starvation!

Nitin's 8th Birthday

2008-02-27T23:30:00.005+08:00

why was I missing for most of Jan...was doing family time!!!

Coffee Outlook 2007 - Vietnam, movers, shakers and concerns of the buyers

2007-12-01T16:43:00.000+08:00

Yes, Coffee Outlook 2007 looks good. We have people from all over the world there to talk prices, understand what Vietnam brings to the coffee industry table and to get a feel for the issues on hand.

I sense that roasters are getting worried, its becoming a supplier's world where those with physical supply will rule the roost.

On one hand - since 2002 lows, we are very happy for the farmers, but on the other hand you can't help but feel for the roasters whose margins are slowly being eroded. I wonder how brand value measures up in this scenario.

There is some pressure for sustainable development (so as to avoid the "crisis in a cup" scenario as painted by Oxfam in the early 2000s), but lots of pressure for producers to produce more!

Fact is - labour, fertilizers, land and more are rising costs...expect the bottom line levels to rise. This suggests prices will not see 2002 levels ever again.

But...are there deals in the background to pre-finance new crops and also develop a dedicated supply as conditions to such arangements...should buyers start behaving the same way as steel, iron ore and other industrial commodities where there is a lot of emphasis on maintaining a strategic interest and hence supply and availability?

We have heard all this before...and given the US Dollar's depreciation in the last year or so.
Is coffee also a victim of the energy age?
- fertiliser costs up
- coffee is not the best crop to plant - there are others
- the property boom in ASia means higher land costs and possibly higher labour costs

Should we look at Africa again? Does Africa want coffee?

Lets see what they say at Coffee Outlook 2007...and also pay attention to some of the banter duing breaks, during the parties and during the less formal meetings we have during the week.

SeaTrans - we're proud of it!!

2007-12-01T16:39:00.000+08:00

Just back from Shanghai and am very pleased with the way everything went! We felt that everyone enjoyed it...was nice to see rooms full at the end of the conference and during the afternoons...all in all we are happy and now look forward to crafting the next event for 2008, perhaps even take the idea and build other similar platforms for exchange in commodities and in shipping.

My thoughts now move to coffee...must get ready for Vietnam.

SeaTrans - Experiment in Shanghai - Freight Markets, Bunkers, Ports and the China Connection

2007-11-25T09:11:00.000+08:00

Yes, I'm still at work...now in shanghai where we enter tomorrow (26 Nov 07), the world of SeaTrans 2007. We essentially decided to consolidate three events to create one larger event that offers both common streams and issues, focused content and the chance to network.

This time we have Bunkering, Dry Bulk and the container port and shipping sectors in view...all important from a china perspective and all offering a nice mix of content and exposure that everyone should enjoy.

I do hope we can build this up...at a time when everyone is jumping on the shipping conference bandwagon - we need to stay ahead and I hope the people like it..better still give me new ideas n additions and adjustments we can make so that we can deliver a better event off the base we now have.

In short 2007's agenda is about:

- rising cost of bunkers and what this means to you (I guess in short, Dry Bulk guys remain happy, tanker operators are crying and container shipping is also on their knees with the impact of higher bunker costs representing something like 40-60% of operating cost...perhaps we should move away from the residual fuel model...but then that too would open up new issues

- Dry Bulk shipping has been the darlings of the business, with rates as historic highs...then the issues here are more about fatigue, overuse and the care needed to ensure these working assets are able to maximise income at a time all owners descrive as well beyond most imagination - my own feel...the secret lies in port congestion and the possibility that new ships coming on stream
could be left crewless...and hence unable to add badly needed tonnage to the market

- Ports and the Container industry...China is factory to the world..so the Asia-Europe and US Trades are booming..but that story has been about for a long time already...the new part is China's growth, Asia rise and the demand for ports and shipping on the back haul - as Asians demand for more luxury and quality products.

On thing is for sure, China is and will be an important feature, in trade and since some 98% of world trade is via ships...shipping will take on a strong Chinese (Asian) influence.

Once this week is done...my thoughts will move to coffee..another commodity on price acendancy, and yet another product that has its future in Asia...and maybe the Middle East and Russian Far East. Anyway we will be in Vietnam...Asia's largest coffee exporter and the world No.2...so numbers from there will shape price and markets. Lets see.

Next Up- Lloyd's List Shipping Leaders Summit 2007

2007-11-04T10:58:00.000+08:00

In two weeks I'm changing focus, from rice to shipping...better still with the elites in shipping. So if you are wondering why dry bulk markets fell last week, or how oil prices will affect global shipping (tankers, bunker costs or to put it simply costs overall) and want to understand the fundamentals in shipping and what CEOs are thinking (better still what they are doing)...this is it. 15th November 2007 at the Kowloon Shangri-La Hotel in Hong Kong.
Bonus - if you are a networker like me, you will also enjoy the evening cocktails the the Lloyd's List Asia Awards that takes place immediately after the seminar.
What will we look at?
firstly the seminar is done on a dialogue style - so less emphasis on powerpoint presentation and more emphasis on off -the-cuff (albeit most is prepared) discussions and the chance for audience interaction.
The issues:
- shipping cycles and if they are still relevant
- increased use of capital markets as vessel prices rise
- cargo is moved by people - human resources needed to fuel shipping (tons of issues as the global fleet grows and grows and companies struggle to fine seafarere and senior officers to work these vessels)
- free trade and ports will also be in focus as it appears that growth in the ship population alone ends up only with congestion - so port developments and the logistics infrastructure is also key

Shipping is now 40% or more Asian owned and certainly fueled by Asian demand - so I am quite excited at the prospect of meeting and discussing the industry concerns with people who have not just risen to gain from the current boom, I would say these are the guys who have been consistent - they survived the lows of shipping and have a proven record of not just survival, but excellence.

One more item not to be missed - the new generation of shipowners...and we have Sabrina Chao on board to give us a peek of what's in store.

The world is seemingly complex but when we anlyse the success stories, the simplicity of the reasoning implies that "vision" is the trick, vision that helps simplify the situation to allow clarity in looking at the opportunities on the road ahead.

I'm excited and quite looking forward to the trip....also because shipping was an area of concern at our rice event last week.

Scarcity & Choice - two rules, especially in rice

2007-11-03T19:06:00.000+08:00

Just back from Bali. Expected a sweet journey, but ended up with a lot of news, and with business also taking its tol. The event also revealed the achilles heel of the rice industry by exposing the "denial" that the industry was going through as falling stocks and challenges in keeping supply up finally impacted on price.

Also interesting were :
- Rice as a comparison against other cereals (wheat especially since it rose 2-3 times its price)
- the Falling US Dollar and its impact
- Freight markets at historice highs (add the ageing handysize fleet, the lack on newbuildings in handies and the problem is elevated further)
- Price movements in the more niche markets of basmati and japonica offering a more dramatic price impact compared to the broader markets
- reluctance by exporters to committ to new trades (they weren't sure of price to offer rice at or simply decided to hold on to stocks for future price gains!)

October 9, 2007 was a landmark date in the global rice industry when everyone sitting with low stocks and some blindingly obvious signs suggesting isssues in supply availability.

Australia - almost obliterated from markets as a supplier (and possibly facing longer term issues if they are to return

China -also see the stock situation and food security creep into the system. Is their 220,000 capacity par boil plant the solution for African buyers concerned about future availability

Brokens - we hear they are as expensive as 5%..certainly close

Basmati - at 1200 $ per tonne, is double on the back onf EU and Middle East demand

USA - not any different, falling acreage, water issues in California = not a likely canditate to take up any short supply in the market

I did however hear of more land in Africa going into grains (rice) production, but even then, what this is likeyt to do is to minimise Africa's import growth rather than stall or reduce imports.

The fear is...can demand remain inelastic to price? Are the poor people of Asia and Africa able to afford rice? So far the problem seems that rice is the cheaper amogst cereals..but I suspect that there is a limit to how far further rice can rise - politics in the form of food security will or at least should place a cap on price rises.

But...if every government were to "panic" as India did (to me India had no choice - either buy more expensive imported wheat or place this ban and hope that consumers switch to rice..just a thought)....imagine what would happen.

the fact is - wheat has become 3x more expensive this year (well..at least twice) - rice has only been slowly rising in price (some folks in the EU may not even notice the difference once you take the falling dollar into account), and the Oct 9th incident has only reinforced the industry's concern or I would say the industry's refusal to accept facts has finally been challenged.

The result - rice prices will be higher but also more volatile.

Suddenly you have all exporters "dreaming" of what price they can get...but be warned, when you go in search of peaks and looking to time your decisions, things can go wrong..exporters may perhaps prefer to be in control of theie supply chain, manage freight and concentrate on their role as a supplier of choice, once who can be counted on (ie minimize, better still - no defaults), and work on making this opportunity and occasion to build business, even brand both in trade and at consumer levels and the foundations for the long terms where the controlling factor will be value.

On that note let me check out.. there are some serious concerns that I will keep watching while I complete the rest of the year where I will look more at shipping and then end the year with our annual coffee conference.

World Rice...in touble of not being able to produce enought?

2007-10-28T20:21:00.000+08:00

Bali, tomorrow...I'm off for the next World Rice Commerce 2007..even more exciting since e saw India ban any non-basmati rice exoports. This is news, and if we read between the lines, we see energy, food and the concept of basic necessities challenged. As it is:
-water is short
- land is increasingly hard to find...worse still anyone who wants to get into the business of producing .. agriculture is less attractive
- there is a genuine choice for farmers in energy crops
But these are old problems...only made worse in the energy age. Add new features:
- freight rates that are both volatile and on historic highs
- a falling US Dollar
- the new reality that production may actually not be enough to meet growing demand

We have amelting pot of issues... research and businesses must start working together.
Food needs to be forced up the political and commercial ladder.
Yes farmers will get more...but they deserve more...we in the industrial world will not find the price rises exorbitent compared to the costs of modern living. Look a little further down...there are millions who are stuck in poverty, will not (may not have been in the first place) be able to afford or obtain food crucial to survival = this is serious

we need
- change in the way we think
- does biotech offer a solution? I'm really not sure...the weather and mother earth are not that easy to conquer
- is there a choice? Yes - I beleive so, but noone wants to admit it

Then again, are we simply being alarmist...ie nothning will happen to the food industry as we know it.

this could be important...not only for business concerns that will make opportunity from change, but on a more broader social and humanitarian level = with millions of lives at stake.
where will the solutions come from?

I feel that we will need to take biotechnology seriously..but
we also need to look at Africa, S.America and the pockets of resources in Asia that can be utilised to offer a sustainable and long term future. Rice is crucial...not only to Asia...its a global issue.

Next up...Food V Energy Security...is there a choice? Both are important...solution is found in sustailability and the ability for some of the most "advanced" nations in the world to forgo some of their more selfish endeavours...perhaps even forcing the WTO forward.

Ethanol and Asian Energy Demand

2007-06-05T21:38:00.000+08:00

its been some time since I last checked in - been busy and from all my past experience in the sector...more than 13 years...I have never seen one issue play such a significant role in shaping the world trade of agricultural products. Ethanol...has changes the landscape..be it oil palm, soybeans, sugar or even wheat. My only worry is, while farmers are finally beginning to be rewarded (and they deserve more than any banker I know)...it is somewhat worrying that the impact of this renewable sector has had a major role in limiting the availability of food...be it meats (feed is needed for the meat producers), food (wheat in EU is used now as biofuels), rice (China is looking at it) or soy (protein, vegetable oils...u get my drift) - all of these food or certainly food related crops that have a role in sending calorific values across the globe - are being used for fuel.
Could food security be an issue if ythis continues to track oil prices in the coming years?
Or are there new non food crops and alternatives being invested upon? Jatropha is one I can name...
fact is - food - the way it is traded, its opportunity cost as food(should this be the main cost?) and manipulate - has taken on a new form..."transformed" by the combination of capital markets, combined with the wild imaginations of economists to become a completely new animal that needs care, and more understanding.
Traders struggle
Farmers earn (I like this)
Consumers pay more
Bankers dream and manipulate minds and markets
where do we go in the new future.

China, India and the fact that 2 billion people want to live the "America dream" is real. Does mother earth have enought to feed their stomachs, and ambitions...that is the question.

I'm still doing events:
Sugar, Coffee, Rice, Soy, Grain & Feeds all in the next half a year - and all of these offer nice new promise of content, exchange and stimulation.
visit my office website www.ibc-asia.com for details
I hope to write weekly so I can get myself accustomed to this new media. Still plan to keep it private till I build some confidence on my writing skills, communication and views.

World Rice Commerce 2006

2006-11-04T08:45:00.000+08:00

Finally, the event is over, the good was in the attendance and the support we gained from many of our friends in the business. Even better, we can confirm the next stop to be Bali, and judging by the comments made, we can expect everyone back.
I'm now getting ready for our annual coffee event, as well as a seminar of container shipping.

Must admit that the commodities world is finaly being recognised for its life-critical role in building economies and in the case of agri-commodities, food to the global table.

I still feel that GM will force the hand of the world to accept its offering as a solution to bringing food at a very cheap cost in spite of all the paranoia still around about "Frankenfoods" etc. Its only a matter of economics in the end, with a strong dose of politics.

Finally, on the back of our event in Vietnam, I will now work on a new project that takes us to the Americas for a rice event like no other.
Till next time.
visit my office website for more info on coffee etc: www.ibc-asia.com

London, Marseille and the World Cup

2006-06-26T04:08:00.001+08:00

Am in London now, and its all about the world cup. Evreryone here wants England. It was refreshing to watch Ghana and Korea show up for the underdogs. As much as I like Brazil from childhood, I would love to see Ghana make it to the quarters or even semis...will only heighten the case for more "world" representations at the world cup.
Otherwise, no surprises, expect more draws, extra time and penalties as groups tighten their grip as the cost of loss rises. Must atmit the it is refreshing to watch an exciting Germany - one of the most attacking minded German teams I have the pleasure of witnessing since 1978... plus the tournament itself seems to have been well run with German efficiency leading the way to a pleasing spectacle.
No surprises...the usual names of Germany, Brazil, Argentina, Italy, France as well as the Dutch (best team never to have won) still in the competition...
Had an interesting event in Marseille, focused on rice, with a closer look at African demand, European issues, as well as the push for greater free-trade...most importantly with some very nice people, and exciting social program, and more friends who have made both business and leisure a pleasure. People make life, and my life is blessed with people, people I can call friends!

2006-06-26T04:08:00.000+08:00

Am in London now, and its all about the world cup. Evreryone here wants England. It was refreshing to watch Ghana and Korea show up for the underdogs. As much as I like Brazil from childhood, I would love to see Ghana make it to the quarters or even semis...will only heighten the case for more "world" representations at the world cup.
Otherwise, no surprises, expect more draws, extra time and penalties as groups tighten their grip as the cost of loss rises. Must atmit the it is refreshing to watch an exciting Germany - one of the most attacking minded German teams I have the pleasure of witnessing since 1978... plus the tournament itself seems to have been well run with German efficiency leading the way to a pleasing spectacle.
No surprises...the usual names of Germany, Brazil, Argentina, Italy, France as well as the Dutch (best team never to have won) still in the competition...
Had an interesting event in Marseille, focused non rice, with some very nice people, and exciting social program, and more friends who have made both business and leisure a pleasure.

Commodities...Boom, Bust...where are they heading?

2006-06-10T00:59:00.000+08:00

Been too busy to update the site, but have some interesting thoughts now on rubber industry, coffee...also visited blackgoldmovie.com...my interest is more in Asia...and the mother of all commodities RICE.

Was in Vietnam last week, talking coffee and rice...and I must say, having visited blackgoldmovie.com there is also a case for the farmers in Vietnam...often missed by NGOs and others...my only guess is that the situation in Africa could be significantly worse.

On a business note, please do visit www.ibc-asia.com and take a look at some of our work in Rubber, Sugar, Rice, Coffee and all the hard commodities coal, iron ore, steel...the world is certainly revolving around Asia - commodity prices look good, but the big question seems to loom on the future of funds, as well as the whole sentiment factor...yes...sentiment factor that has driven equity markets down in the last couple of weeks...interesting to watch...everything is tied in with oil these days...even sugar..up on the possibility of ethanol (like in Brazil) making a viable option to oil...to replace imports...but this is where the true test lies...will commodity value as human feed (energy to people) eventually mean that products like corn, palm oil, sugar etc...all start feeling a difference when the consumer starts to feel the pinch.

Just look at the dominance of Asia:
- rising middle class (India, China...even SE Asian tigers are back)
- demand for coal, iron ore, steel...all very GDP...building blocks of economies
- food; we do have a rising population, with middle class growth, demand for options and quality..even a more US styled fast approach to everything
- all of above have benefitted shipping...tankers, dry bulk, liner shipping...yesnthey are all donw now, but that not because of a lack of demand...as shipping cycles have it, seems like noone's prepared to learn from past ...

anyway...having done this for more than 10 years now, I feel we're experiencing some of the world's most exciting times...on my part, the investment is in a grossly undervalued product .. FOOD... like to see more value reach the very poor placed that supply a large chunk of the world's food needs. Everything seems connected.

will come back with more specifics on some of the work...need time for that.

Subra's Commodities & Shipping Site

2006-04-04T21:50:00.000+08:00

Rice, Sugar, Coffee, Corn...the list goes on and on..yet, I am thrilled by my work, as I dwell deeper and deeper into to business of commodities and the route it takes from farm to fork! I beleive that we have ignored the importance of life sustaining food products, and also beleive that commodities are the foundation stones of economies - today's stories on the thirst of China and India are ideas we have toyed with in the last twelve years. My work focuses on the resources or Asia, as well as her needs, to allow businesses to take a peek at the future. Create new bonds and oil the wheels of commerce that is so vital in taking commodities across thousands of miles into our homes.

After last year's focus on China...steel, iron ore, coal as well as the all important business of rice, wheat and all major and minor bulk commodities...we move 2006 into Vietnam, to look at pepper, coffee and rice - how a rising economy, so poor in comparison to the developed world is also what we rely on for food.

Watch this spot - I have many offerings and views lined up in the months to come. What will we look at:
April - Steel
June - Rice (and maybe the world cup)
August - Sugar and the power from ethanol
September - Shipping, marine fuels, dry bulk shipping and energy shipping in Asia
October - Rice...from Vietnam's rich heritage
December - Coffee in Asia